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摩根大通表示,农产品价格过度疲软压力全球大宗商品未平仓价值

2024-06-25 18:03

The estimated value of open interest across global commodity markets edged lower over the week to ~$1.43 trillion, with price-based declines across agricultural markets outweighing gains in energy, metals as of June 21, JPM Commodities Research said.

Outflows persisted across global commodity markets for a fourth consecutive week, largely concentrated across crude oil markets (-$6.8 billion), base metals (-$4.6 billion) and agri markets (-$4.5 billion), while precious metals and natural gas registered modest inflows over the week, the brokerage added.

Estimated open interest value across the agricultural market plunged to a seven-week low of ~$297 billion, largely driven by price pressure across grain and cocoa markets in the week to June 21, as per the data.

Given the latest sell-off, agricultural commodities like sugar, wheat and corn move to the top of our list of preferred longs, JPM added.

Investors and traders will now closely watch the USDA's planted acreage and June 1 quarterly grain stocks reports on Friday, June 28.

Furthermore, the brokerage said, the short-term momentum trading signal on ICE Brent and ICE Gasoil switched positive from ‘sell’ to ‘buy’, while the short-term lookback on CBOT Corn, Kansas Wheat and ICE NY Cocoa switched negative to ‘sell’ signal; the short-term lookback on NYMEX Gasoline is approaching a “buy” signal switch, it added.

Elsewhere, COMEX gold registered the highest delivery volume in nearly two years, with more than 30k contracts standing for delivery. With gold seeing massive delivery volume, and silver poised to do the same, it appears that more people are taking delivery of physical metal despite the higher prices, SchiffGold said in an article.

June silver saw a modest 1,331 contracts stand for delivery. June is a minor month in silver, but activity in the metal has definitely picked up after a pretty quiet 2023, SchiffGold added.

Recent Commodity Price Movements and A look At Some ETFs

  • Energy

      • Crude oil (CL1:COM-0.50% to $81.23.
      • Natural Gas (NG1:COM+0.68% to $2.83.

    Metals

      • Palladium (XPDUSD:CUR) +1.50% to $980.00.

      • Platinum (XPTUSD:CUR) -0.07% to $999.70.

      • Gold (XAUUSD:CUR+0.10% to $2,333.30.

    Agriculture

      • Corn (C_1:COM-0.78% to $430.11.
      • Wheat (W_1:COM-3.46% to $551.22.
      • Soybeans (S_1:COM+0.03% to $1,174.78.

    Commodity ETFs

    Gold ETFs:

      • SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)
      • VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
      • VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)
      • iShares Gold Trust ETF (IAU)
      • Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares ETF (NUGT)
      • Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS)

    Other Metal ETFs:

      • iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)
      • Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV)
      • Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL)
      • U.S. Copper Index Fund, LP ETF (CPER)
      • abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL)

    Oil ETFs:

      • U.S. Oil Fund, LP ETF (USO)
      • Invesco DB Oil Fund ETF (DBO)
      • U.S. 12 Month Oil Fund, LP ETF (USL)
      • U.S. Brent Oil Fund, LP ETF (BNO)
      • U.S. Natural Gas Fund, LP ETF (UNG)
      • U.S. Gasoline Fund, LP ETF (UGA)

    Agriculture ETFs:

      • Invesco DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)
      • Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB)
      • Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT)
      • Teucrium Corn Fund ETF (CORN)
 

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