繁體
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文

熱門資訊> 正文

美国国债-美国收益率曲线陡峭,投资者削减激进的加息押注

2021-10-20 03:57

* U.S. 10-year yield hits highest since early June

* U.S. 20-year, 30-year yields touch one-week highs

* U.S. 5/30 yield curve steepens to 92.8 basis points

(Adds new comment, Fed&aposs Waller&aposs remarks, updates prices)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Oct 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury yield curve widened on Tuesday, as investors unwound flattening moves of the last few sessions after global central banks dampened expectations of near-term tightening that spilled over to the world&aposs largest bond market.

The steepening of the curve extended further after weaker than-expected U.S. housing data.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, meanwhile, rose to its highest in more than four months.

U.S. fed fund futures 0#FF: , which track short-term Federal Reserve rate expectations, on Tuesday priced a 64% chance of a rate hike in July next year, down from 82% on Monday. Traders also priced a 46% chance of a U.S. rate rise by June next year, down from a more than 60% chance on Monday.

The yield curve had flattened recently on expectations the Fed will tighten interest rates earlier than anticipated, pushing yields on the short end higher. The yield spread between the U.S. 5-year note and U.S. 30-year bond widened to 92.8 basis points US5US30=TWEB on Tuesday.

On Monday, the U.S. 5-year/30-year yield curve was at its flattest since late April 2020.

"The steepening of the curve today is a moderation of Fed hike expectations," said Ben Jeffery, rates strategist, at BMO Capital in New York.

"The Fed had said it will hike rates after it ends tapering but that runs counter to a June tightening that the market was pricing in. So we&aposre probably finding a footing at a new range at this point, looking at 5s/30s between 85 and 100 basis points," he added.

The U.S. 5-year yield, which reflects Fed tightening, has been on a tear the last two weeks, hitting its highest since February 2020 at 1.193%. The yield was last down at 1.1586%.

Analysts said global central banks&apos dovish comments on Tuesday prompted some of the session&aposs earlier steepening moves.

Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank&aposs policy-setting Governing Council, said on Tuesday there is no reason for the ECB to raise rates between now and the end of 2022 as euro zone inflation is expected to fall back below the ECB&aposs 2% target.

Earlier, the Reserve Bank of Australia, in the minutes of its October policy meeting, said the outbreak of the Delta variant had interrupted the Australian economy&aposs recovery. It reiterated its view of no hike in the 0.1% cash rate until 2024 given sluggish wages and inflation.

Aside from the dovish central bank messages, U.S. housing starts unexpectedly fell in September amid persistent shortages of inputs and labor. U.S. starts dropped 1.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.555 million units last month.

The U.S. housing report briefly weighed on long-dated yields, before they resumed gains.

In afternoon U.S. trading, U.S. 10-year yields were last up nearly six basis points at 1.6407% US10YT=RR . It hit a 4-1/2-months peak of 1.6440%.

U.S. 20-year and 30-year yields rose to one-week highs and were last up at 2.0684% US20YT=RR and 2.0897% US30YT=RR , respectively.

The long end hit their peaks after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed may have to adopt "a more aggressive policy response" if high inflation continues through the end of the year.

October 19 Tuesday 2:19PM New York / 1819 GMT

Price Current Net

Yield % Change

(bps) Three-month bills US3MT=RR 0.055 0.0558 0.000 Six-month bills US6MT=RR 0.06 0.0609 0.000 Two-year note US2YT=RR 99-185/256 0.3932 -0.028 Three-year note US3YT=RR 99-190/256 0.7124 -0.019 Five-year note US5YT=RR 98-166/256 1.157 -0.003 Seven-year note US7YT=RR 98-156/256 1.4613 0.021 10-year note US10YT=RR 96-144/256 1.6302 0.046 20-year bond US20YT=RR 94-240/256 2.0624 0.065 30-year bond US30YT=RR 98-40/256 2.0833 0.066

DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS

Last (bps) Net

Change

(bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 16.00 0.50 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 14.75 -0.75 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 6.50 0.00 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 0.25 0.25 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -23.75 -0.75 spread

風險及免責提示:以上內容僅代表作者的個人立場和觀點,不代表華盛的任何立場,華盛亦無法證實上述內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。投資者在做出任何投資決定前,應結合自身情況,考慮投資產品的風險。必要時,請諮詢專業投資顧問的意見。華盛不提供任何投資建議,對此亦不做任何承諾和保證。